Oscars Breakdown 2013

Best Picture

Argo
Amour
Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Most likely to win: Argo
Has a chance: Life Of Pi, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty
Who I want to see win: Argo

This year it seems that Argo will win take out the top honours given that it has won basically every notable award over the past few months. Ben Affleck's 1980's thriller centred around the Iran hostage crisis is a film deserving of the award and hopefully if the film does win it will make up for Affleck's snub for Best Director. Other nominees in with a chance such as Life Of Pi and Les Misérables had very positive reviews when they first came out but have failed to maintain the same level of interest as Argo. Given the controversy surrounding the torture scenes in Zero Dark Thirty I can't see it earning more votes than films such as Argo or Lincoln but there is no doubt it has been positively received and still has a slim chance. As for Silver Linings Playbook, the other film to receive an impressive array of nominations (8) I just don't see it as a Best Picture film. Instead the film has more chance of picking up individual acting awards, given that all four main actors/actresses are nominated in their respected categories. The only film that has challenged Argo for awards of late is Lincoln but I can't see it upsetting Argo on the day.


Best Director

Ang Lee: Life Of Pi
Benh Zeitlin: Beasts Of The Southern Wild
David O. Russel: Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke: Amour
Steven Spielberg: Lincoln

Most likely to win: Steven Spielberg: Lincoln
Has a chance: Ang Lee: Life Of Pi 
Who I want to see win: Ben Affleck: Argo/Ang Lee: Life Of Pi

Moving past the obvious snub of Affleck (if Argo wins best picture it will be the third time in history that a film has won Best Picture without its director being nominated) there are still many great directors deserving of the award. Personally I think Ang Lee deserves the award given that he successfully managed to adapt a truly challenging novel into a film. Not only did he successfully adapt a novel that no one thought was possible, but he managed to create a beautiful film in the result.  In saying that I wouldn't be disappointed if Spielberg won given that he is one of my all time favourite directors.


Best Actor

Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis: Lincoln
Denzel Washington: Flight
Hugh Jackman: Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix: The Master

Most likely to win: Daniel Day Lewis: Lincoln
Has a chance: Denzel Washington: Flight, Hugh Jackman: Les Misérables
Who I want to see win: Denzel Washington: Flight

This year I think the category comes down to two heavy weights of Hollywood: Daniel and Denzel. Both have won two Oscars but if Daniel Day Lewis wins he will make history as the first actor to win three Oscars for Best Actor. Hugh Jackman is perhaps the rough chance given his recent Golden Globe win but ultimately I can't see him winning. He has at least demonstrated to a wider audience his talents as a dramatic actor and shown that he can do more than play the famous long clawed mutant; Wolverine.


Best Actress

Emmanuelle Riva: Amour
Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts: The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis: Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Most likely to win: Emmanuelle Riva: Amour
Has a chance: Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook, Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty,
Quvenzhané Wallis: Beasts Of The Southern Wild (Sorry Naomi)
Who I want to see win: Quvenzhané Wallis: Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Once again Jennifer Lawrence has impressed audiences earning herself another Oscar nomination (not bad considering she is still only 22 years old). For many she is the favourite to take out the award along with Jessica Chastain who is fast becoming the most sought after actress. But given the fact that Emmanuelle Riva is 85 and may not get another chance at an Oscar I feel the Academy will vote in her favour. Not just for her role in Amour but to honour her achievement to the movie industry over so many years. Personally I feel Quvenzhané Wallis is the most deserving as she is absolutely amazing in Beasts Of The Southern Wild. Either way this year could be a record breaker as the award could potentially be handed out to the oldest ever winner or the youngest ever (Quvenzhané Wallis).


Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin: Argo
Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman: The Master 
Robert DeNiro: Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln

Most likely to win: Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln
Has a chance: Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained, Alan Arkin: Argo
Who I want to see win: Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained or Alan Arkin: Argo

This category is the toughest to pick for me as both Waltz and Arkin deliver memorable performances bringing their unique brand of comedy to films set in difficult times (Django Unchained) and in tense situations (Argo). I'm Glad recognition has been given to Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix for their roles in The Master. Neither of them is likely to take away an award but they both give performances worthy of an Oscar. As For Tommy Lee Jones, he has certainly gained a vast array of accolades for his performance in Lincoln and I think he remains the favourite by a small margin. 
 

Best Supporting Actress  

Amy Adams: The Master
Anne Hathaway: Les Misérables
Helen Hunt: The Sessions
Jackie Weaver: Silver Linings Playbook  
Sally Field: Lincoln 

Most likely to win: Anne Hathaway: Les Misérables 
Has a chance: Helen Hunt: The Sessions, Sally Field: Lincoln
Who I want to see win: Anne Hathaway: Les Misérables

Probably the category that seems the most certain as Anne Hathaway has had an amazing couple of months winning multiple awards and praise for her heart-wrenching performance in Les Misérables. 


Best Animated Feature 

Brave 
Frankenweenie
Paranorman 
The Pirates! Band Of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph 

Most likely to win: Wreck-It Ralph 
Has a chance: Brave
Who I want to see win: Wreck-It Ralph

Although Brave was an entertaining film it was not one of Pixar's best and I feel the immensely enjoyable Disney film Wreck-It Ralph will edge Brave out for the top spot. Both films were a huge success at the box office aided by the fact that they could be enjoyed by adults as well as children. This year also saw a reoccurring theme of the paranormal appear in animated films, with low budget films Frankenweenie and Paranorman both earning nominations. Both films were somewhat disappointing despite being beautifully made, especially Tim Burton's Black and White; Frankenweenie that is based on his short film from the 1980's that was part of the reason he was sacked by Disney. Despite Burton's poetic redemption (Frankenweenie released by Disney) Frankenweenie will remain a very outside chance.



Best Documentary
 
5 Broken Cameras
How To Survive A Plague
Searching For Sugar Man
The Gatekeepers
The Invisible War

Most likely to win: Searching For Sugar Man 
Has a chance: How To Survive A Plague
Who I want to see win: Searching For Sugar Man

For me this has to be a one film race as Searching For Sugar Man is not just the best documentary for the year but one of the best I have ever seen.  

There are a few certainties that come with the Oscars: there will be lots of long drawn out speeches, the red carpet will receive as much focus as the awards themselves, there is bound to be some upsets and the host will unsuccessfully make a series of awkward jokes to try and lighten the mood. However this year I am really looking forward to the Oscars because there are many films/actors that I feel genuinely deserve an award and I think Seth MacFarlane will put on a great show as host.